Whether you’re just wanting to sell off your old collection, or you’re getting (back) into collecting sports cards, there’s one thing everyone wants to know:
How can you tell which sports cards are worth money?
It’s a tricky question, as it changes across sports, across eras, and even as time goes on collectors change what they value!
The good news is that it’s something you’ll get good at. Even if you’re just evaluating your own collection to sell, after you’ve gone through a few hundred cards, you generally have an idea if you’re holding something of value or not!
So let’s dig in and talk about the 7 Factors that determine if a sports card is worth money!
7 Factors to Tell Which Sports Cards Are Worth Money
Here are the most common aspects of cards that are worth money:
1. Quality of Player Matters
First, and perhaps most obviously, the quality of the player is the first factor in determining if the card you’re holding is worth something!
If you’re looking at a Derek Fisher base card from 2005, then it’s certainly not worth much. But if you’ve got a Kobe, it’s at least worth checking if you’ve got a valuable card on your hands.
So Kobe is an easy example, but who else really matters?
To be honest, fewer players than you think. They mostly have to be all-time great players…like the best of the best, to really carry value long-term.
For example, even a player like Gary Payton doesn’t carry much hobby love. One of the greatest defenders ever and a perennial all-star…and he’s mostly forgotten.
So someone today who’s collecting Alex Bregman or Matt Stafford cards…well there’s a huge likelihood those players just won’t be remembered or valued in 20 years because they’re not all-time greats.
In other words, if you’ve got anyone other than an all-time great, to me that’s a card for flipping (unless you PC or personally collect that player).
2. Popularity of the Player Matters
Now, to contradict what I said above, just a little bit.
Players get a bump if they:
- Played in a bigger market
- Were likable
- Were exciting
There’s a reason that Kobe and Jordan are the highest valued basketball cards—they were exciting winners who did it with style.
People love Ken Griffey Jr, because he was great (obviously) but also because he was likable and exciting. Someone like Barry Bonds isn’t likable (obviously) because of his personality and the cheating. But here’s the thing—a side-by-side comparison of their stats shows that Bonds is inarguably better.
Griffey Jr. is much more sought after than Barry Bonds.
Centers in the NBA are undervalued for being more boring, while players like Vince Carter and Iverson get bumped up more than their peers because of their fun playing style.
3. Rarity Matters
The best example of this is to look back at the junk wax era, starting in the late 80s and going through to the mid-to-late 90s. Production runs were so high then that most rookies aren’t worth anything today.
Barry Sanders and Emmitt Smith cards can be had for dirt cheap because they came along at the wrong time.
I think Shaq is a great example. Yes, he was a center, but he has a larger-than-life personality and dominated for the league’s premier franchise. Yet, most of his rookies you can buy raw for under $3.
There’s just too many of them!
So when you see today that there are over 20k PSA 10 Ja Morant Prizm rookies, you can begin to understand why those have dropped in value over the past few years despite his crazy ascent to the league’s elite. (The suspensions don’t help either)
We’re seeing this same thing with most new stars in the past couple of years: Vladimir Guerrero Jr, Justin Herbert, Zion Williamson, etc.
Those cards with high pop counts are unlikely to remain as valuable in the future…and we’ve seen many of them drop in price recently as well.
To look up pop counts, check out PSA’s Population Report. It only has PSA cards, but since they are the leader, it’s the best place to look.
4. Brand Matters
If you go back far enough, brand doesn’t matter too much because there might have been only one brand to open!
However, there are dozens, if not hundreds today! It pays to know which ones carry value.
For example, I bought an illusions Ja Morant rookie…and even with his level of popularity and stardom, it’s worth about $5 because it’s one of the lowest tier products!
One major lesson I’ve learned:
Buy fewer cards, but higher quality stuff. For example, I rarely buy the low-end stuff to rip anymore.
For baseball, I’ll do Topps and Bowman, but not things like Topps Heritage. In basketball and football, it’s all Prizm, Mosaic, Optic, and Select. I like when I open a box and get some good base rookies that are worth at least a few bucks.
Long-term, the better quality stuff is easier to sell—and usually at a higher ROI.
5. Popularity of Insert/Parallel Matters
Most inserts are basically worthless. They’re overproduced (especially in cheap products) and often carry less value than the base cards.
However, the card manufacturers are also getting better at producing some awesome inserts that are worth a ton!
They’ve gotten better at taking their best inserts, and making them much more rare so as not to ruin their value.
Some examples are:
- Downtown
- Genesis
- Storm Chasers
- Kaboom
- Home Field Advantage in baseball (to a lesser extent)
There are plenty more, but those are some that the hobby places a premium on!
If you want to go back further into the 90s, basketball has some great examples of this.
For a mid-90s insert of anyone not named Kobe or Jordan to sell for this price shows that it’s a highly sought after insert set!
Here’s another insert set called Competitive Advantage commanding astronomical prices for Jordan:
So if you’re ripping 3 blasters and you get 5 of the same insert, they’re unlikely to be worth anything. Same thing with going through your old cards. If you have a bunch of the same insert set, just look up one of them (perhaps the most popular player in that set) and you’ll know without looking up the rest.
And a quick note about parallels (which are colored/shiny versions of the base cards):
Silvers are interesting because they’re highly sought after. They might be less rare than another parallel, but many collectors love the silvers.
6. Autos Matter
Autos are perhaps the most sought after cards in the hobby because of the connection to the player!
The quality of the auto can affect the price significantly. If the ink is faded or smudged, the card might lose 50% of its value.
7. Game-Worn/High Quality Patches Matter
Quality ones are getting harder and harder to come by, but cards with true game-worn stuff are still sought after.
The most obvious example of these are RPAs (rookie patch autos) from high-end brands like National Treasures. Top rookies can sell for tens of thousands.
8. Eye Appeal Matters
In addition to everything else mentioned, having a beautiful card doesn’t hurt!
Here are some things to look for
- Better Autos – I know some collectors who think chicken-scratch autos or just a letter or two are funny and worth collecting, but that’s the minority. A beautifully written auto, especially if there’s an inscription or player’s jersey number, sell for a premium.
- On-Card Autos – Sticker autos are a plague. If you’re not sure what I mean, just go to eBay and type in your favorite player + auto. Scroll through and look at pictures where the auto is on card vs written on a sticker and then placed on the card. Many collectors abhor sticker autos (like myself) and only buy on-card autos.
- Beautifully Designed Cards – This goes back to the rare inserts, as often the most beautiful ones are also rare. I really liked the Justin Herbert Storm Chasers card I pulled—perhaps the best looking card I’ve had. But I sold it for $160 and bought an Anthony Davis auto because I wanted it for my collection.
- Centered/Better Condition – Cards in better condition will obviously sell for more money—there’s a reason grading cards is so popular. I mention centering specifically because with old cards, centering is very highly valued. I’d rather have beat up corners than a terribly off-centered card, and that’s the case with most collectors. There’s a reason so many people get cards graded.
- Multi-Colored Patches – a jersey patch (or glove, helmet, etc.) with extra colors sell for a massive premium. If you can get part of a letter or logo on the jersey those sell for even more!
So, Which Sports Cards Are Worth the Most?
Well, here’s one of the most expensive cards ever sold:
$4.3 million, to be exact.
This card checks every box on the list. Rare, beautiful auto, all-time great player, high-end brand, and graded. Obviously out of our price range, but just an example.
For regular collectors, I recommend sticking to high-end inserts, rare parallels, non-sticker autos, and rookies of great players (especially non-base rookies).
Anyone that’s not an all-time great is just for flipping, in my opinion.
Which Sports Cards AREN’T Worth Money
Cheap Jersey/Patch Products
These are a plague. Lately, many of the product says “not associated with any specific player, game, or event.” Ummmm…garbage.
There’s a reason many collectors call them “napkin” patches, because they literally could be made from a napkin.
I’ve pulled memorabilia from good rookies, only to find out that their base versions are actually worth more.
If you’re going to chase memorabilia, make sure to get the game-worn stuff (and even those have taken a hit lately, excepting the premium brands). If you’re looking through old cards, check what it says on the back about the memorabilia and cross your fingers it’s from a real game from the actual player.
Is that too much to ask?
Decent Players
I can’t get over how much money people spend on brand-new rookies or young up-and-coming players.
If history tells us one thing, there’s a 1% chance or less that player will become generationally great and therefore hobby relevant in 10-20 years, which means you’re straight-up gambling. Yes, you’re hoping you have the next Tom Brady and that you can have a million-dollar card in 20 years, but that’s…just so unlikely.
Sure, if I pull a Lamelo Ball rookie, I’ll hold onto it and see if he gets better…but there’s no way I’m going to have that card in my collection in 20 years.
When I buy nice cards that I want to hold for a long time, I’m only going after guys that are the best of the best and will go up in value over time.
This one is tough for a lot of collectors that have certain random players that they love and spend thousands of dollars on them.
For example, a lot of people seem to randomly collect JJ Redick. That’s exactly the kind of player that has a small market now and probably next to zero in a decade.
I know collectors like they can get those guys cheap, but I guess I don’t understand tying up that much money in something that’s going to be completely worthless later on.
Here’s the deal…I don’t want to tell you NOT to have fun in the hobby and NOT to collect your favorite player…just be aware that you’re going to lose your shirt financially unless he’s an all-time great player.
Base Cards
The hobby has corrected on base cards lately. With the crazy influx of collectors in late 2020 and early 2021, everything shot up in price—even base cards.
This is partly because PSA was still dirt cheap and people sent everything they had in.
But then all those came back from PSA, the market flooded, and there’s soooo much base around that people are actively rebelling against buying base.
When I find a player I want to invest in for flipping, I rarely buy base anymore. I like to find colored Prizm (for football/basketball), such as a green or even a silver.