The sports card industry saw perhaps the largest spike in its history in late 2020 through early 2021! This happened for a variety of reasons, such as Michael Jordan’s Last Dance documentary being a smash hit, the pandemic forcing bored people to stay at home and pulling out their old collections, and even that the people who collected during the 90’s boom are now adults with more expendable income!
But are they back for good, or was this a short-term spike?
Yes, it’s true that sports cards are back, experiencing an unprecedented boom in both quantity and value of sales. We see this also in the number of new companies—tech companies, selling platforms, content creators—joining the market. Continued growth also appears likely with Fanatics purchasing Topps as well as acquiring the rights to produce licensed MLB, NFL, and NBA cards.
Yes, Sports Cards are Back!
Sports cards are back because they’re more on the public consciousness than ever before. More stories have become mainstream news (for good or for bad). Cards are flying off the shelves and eBay sales continue to grow.
New tech, new systems, new platforms, new breakers, new podcasts, new YouTubers, new bloggers—people are jumping into every aspect of the hobby.
And, from a personal perspective, I’ve never had this many conversations about sports cards with people who I never thought I would. For example, my dad randomly mentioned his old Mantle card (not the Mantle card) and also his 1st Edition Spiderman comic. My boss at work mentioned his box in the basement. My brother’s talked to me about his stash at his house.
People forgot about this stuff they have, and are just now thinking about it again due to the public awareness.
But let’s dig into the specific reasons why I think cards are here to stay.
Index increases on CardLadder
My favorite tool for sports card investing/collecting is easily CardLadder (I’m not sponsored or paid by them…just love them!).
They’ve created their own “Index” to measure the overall growth of different markets. They take a large sample of popular cards and track their growth.
In the past two years, we’ve seen growth from 265% (in baseball) all the way up to 632% in football!
Take a look:
The most promising part is that we’re seeing sustained growth after the crazy spurt in late 2020 – early 2021!
Basketball had the biggest correction, but it’s creeped back up fairly significantly over the past 7-8 months.
I’ve heard endless cries of “the crash is coming!” and “new junk wax era!” but we have yet to see it…and I’ll explain later why I don’t foresee that coming.
Retail Flying Off the Shelves
This became a national headline:
With the card marketing going into a frenzy, there came a point where any product you could find on the shelves would sell for a decent markup on eBay. The good stuff (Prizm, Optic) would sell for 5x – 10x…and the flipping boon was born.
With so much money to be made, unemployed people hung out at Walmarts and Targets waiting for restocks. People with jobs were heading over 5 times per day. Because if you were there right when the restock happened, you could make several hundred or $1k+, easy.
Of course, this led to crap. Reps being followed to their houses. Employees taking product before it even hit the shelves. And worst of all, grown men fighting over product.
Of course this led to a gun pulled (per that headline above) and Target removing all sports cards for awhile.
Of course I’m not arguing this is a good thing…but the high demand isn’t a bad thing. We’ve settled in a much more sustainable place now.
There’s still the high-end stuff that flippers want and collectors dream of. But, the manufacturers have printed more, driving prices down. Retailers have raised prices as well—which is exactly what should happen in a healthy economy. Now at a lot of stores, you can find plenty of product to open.
More Industries Popping Up
With so many people interested in the hobby, there are more people in the industries that support the hobby than ever before!
Like they say about the California gold rush—few of the prospectors got rich; it was the people who sold picks and shovels who made the money!
That’s why we’re seeing more breakers, more bloggers (guilty!), more podcasts, more selling platforms, more Facebook groups, data collection apps, and more grading companies.
All of this is good for the long-term growth of the hobby. Collectors/card flippers want to participate in communities and/or have access to better ways to profit. The better those things get dialed in, the more hobbyists and card investors will stick around!
Future of the Hobby
So far, I’ve talked about how the market hasn’t crashed…and in fact appears to still be growing. Most of the talk of “we’re in a bubble, it’s going to crash!” seems to have stopped, but there’s still a TON of talk about junk wax 2.0.
The original junk wax era happened in the late 80s – mid 90s where card companies produced so many cards that most of them are worthless now. The fact that most of Shaq’s rookies can be had for $2 or less speaks volumes.
But I don’t believe that’s what’s happening now nor what will happen in the future. Here’s why:
Fanatics Acquiring Topps as Well as Rights to Produce Licensed NFL, MLB, and NBA Cards
Why is this a good thing?
Before this happened, Topps was the biggest producer of MLB, and Panini was for NFL and MLB. Now, they’re all under one roof at Fanatics.
But here’s why that is awesome:
Fanatics is dedicated to growing the card market 10-fold. Here’s what Fanatics CEO Michael Rubin
“Here is this really, actually pretty big business that had a lot of opportunity to make a much better experience for the collector.”
And…
“Realistically this is like a financial asset that young people are really getting into, it’s like an alternative investment class, and it’s also, it’s really something that could be so much bigger, so I look and say, could we grow this industry 10 times, 20 times, 30 times, and I thought yes.”
He also goes on to talk about how the card industry has never had anyone market it. They rely on nostalgia, word of mouth…but when was the last time you saw a commercial or a billboard for it?
The leaders of Fanatics also seem determined to build a better business model and having one place to buy, sell, trade and do other industry related activities.
There’s a lot more out there about how Fanatics is going to try to improve the industry, so I won’t get into it here…
But I will say to those people that think we’re a new junk wax era:
If demand goes up 10x or more (like Michael Rubin thinks will happen), then we’re actually undervaluing cards right now. If in 5 years print runs are much higher to accommodate huge demand, then the pop counts that seem high now will be more rare and values skyrocket.
It’s all supply and demand, and for the first time, we have a massive player dedicated to growing the industry as a whole because they’ll be the biggest player by far.