Every year there are more and more basketball card brands being released! For most collectors, there are really too many to follow.
If I can, I try to open at least one of most things (except for the uber expensive ones).
Today I’m going to give you a rundown of boxes that are great holds, which ones can give good value opening them up, and which ones are just plain fun to open. Here are the brands I’m looking at:
- Prizm
- Optic
- Select
- Illusions
- Hoops
- Donruss
- Chronicles
Of course, there are brands like National Treasures and Flawless, but those are available to people in a completely different tax bracket (or in breaks, which you can read more about here). I’m also excluding Mosaic because some of the data was incomplete.
Which Basketball Card Brand is Best for Flipping?
First, let’s start by analyzing these brands and specifically the value you can get from them by holding them sealed!
I don’t have a huge history with buying and holding because once I get the boxes in my house, I’m just going to open them up!
The way I’ve combatted this is if I can buy retail products from Target.com before they sell out. I’ll go ahead and list them on eBay before I’ve even received them. That way, if they sell, I’m forced to ship them out.
The beauty is that if I can make $30 – $50, I’ll go buy a card—basically for free!
The exception for me is that I purchased a case of Topps Chrome baseball because I knew I’d be able to resist, and that specific brand has a long history of 2x or more in value fairly quickly.
Retail vs Hobby For Long-Term Holds
In general, hobby boxes tend to hold more value sealed over the long-term. This is because hobby boxes contain guaranteed hits, like autos, memorabilia, rare inserts, or numbered parallels.
Most of the people buying sealed wax after it’s 2x or 3x in price are gamblers by nature and are hoping to hit a massive card. That’s much, much more likely out of a hobby box.
Also, hobby boxes are much rarer. I’ve heard confirmed on podcasts from higher-ups at Panini that typically they’ll increase the print run of retail to meet demand, but not so much with hobby. They like hobby boxes to retain some exclusivity so the big hits don’t get watered down. This obviously drives the price of hobby boxes through the roof.
Of course, a year with an amazing rookie class (like Luka and Trae’s), ALL sealed wax is going to go up in value—just typically not as much as a hobby box.
For comparison, I’m going to look at the 2019-20 hobby boxes (Ja and Zion’s year) which gives us a couple of years’ worth of data. I’m also going to show the current price of a hobby box for each of these and gather a rough ROI number.
| Brand | 2019-20 | 2020-21 | 2021-22 | 2022-23 |
| Prizm | $835 | $1,425 | $850 | $800 |
| Optic | $490 | $490 | $360 | $345 |
| Select | $1,075 | $640 | $275 | $440 |
| Hoops | $305 | $200 | $123 | $128 |
| Donruss | $785 | $275 | $200 | $200 |
| Chronicles | $370 | $400 | $235 | $240 |
Some notes from these values:
- I can’t believe that Donruss from 2019-20 is MORE valuable than Optic. That’s an upset for sure.
- Hoops simply doesn’t hold value. I’m surprised it’s actually so much lower than Chronicles in each year. Chronicles is a fun rip, but considered pretty bottom barrell
- I’m not sure why Prizm bumps up nicely in 2020-21. Good rookie class, but most of the other boxes drop in value that year.
- Select from 2019-00 is that valuable? That’s pretty insane.
My overall pick for best box NBA hobby box to hold long-term: Select
Prizm boxes don’t seem to be selling for more than they cost (except for the year with the best rookies). However, Select consistently outperforms Optic. This surprised me, until I realized that Select has 3 autos or memorabilia cards per box.
I think Donruss, Chronicles, and Hoops are fun rips, but those usually don’t maintain value as well.
Which Basketball Card Brand is the Best to Open?
For each of these brands, let’s take a look at what the “flagship” rookie is selling for raw. This will give us an idea overall of how valuable the brand’s rookies are. It’s not a perfect comparison of course just to look at rookies, but we can get some idea.
| Brand | Zion Williamson PSA 10 | Anthony Edwards PSA 10 |
| Prizm | $48 | $85 |
| Optic | $28 | $50 |
| Select | $20 | $40 |
| Hoops | $10 | $35 |
| Donruss | $20 | $50 |
Comparing the high end rookies out of hobby boxes is instructive. We knew that Prizm rookies would be highly sought after—they’ve been the standard for awhile and the closest to a “flagship” as there is in the hobby.
The incredible popularity of silver prizm rookies also drives up the value of Prizm over time. Can you imagine hitting a Luka silver? The box will set you back thousands, but a PSA 10 silver gets you nearly $3k.
Now look on the low end…Hoops isn’t doing you a whole lot whether you hold or rip.
Donruss rookies are fairly popular because people like the style of their Rated Rookies, but they are also watered down a bit.
Anyway, whether you rip or hold, it seems that the higher end will typically do better, because it’s more reliable and has the reputation to back it up. If you’re going to go lower end, I’d probably go with Donruss for either holding or ripping.
Yes, Chronicles had the better ROI for the cheaper stuff, but I think it’s reputation the past year or two has taken a bit of a hit.
Recommended read => What Are the Best Card Packs to Flip?
