If you’re finding it harder to make a profit on ultra-modern baseball cards…you’re not alone!
It seems that the most hyped players are already too expensive, and then will likely have an astronomical pop count that drives the price down.
All in all, there’s a reason many collectors will tell you to only chase vintage—pop counts are low and they’re legacy is already cemented. We don’t need to guess if Mickey Mantle is going to keep improving and have a great career.
You might feel like you have to get lucky opening a box or in a break to make any profit, but I’m here to tell you that it CAN be done…it just requires a strategy and some patience.
First, let’s talk about why it’s hard to profit nowadays, and then we can talk about how to do it!
The Challenges of Ultra-Modern Baseball Card Collecting
Crazy Print Runs
As I’m writing this, the craze is all about Wemby and CJ Stroud in the newest releases.
It’s true, some people are making ridiculous money with him, and it’s possible you could, too…
But most of sets are likely producing 1 million+ base cards for these players.
But here’s the thing:
I DON’T think we’re entering into another junk wax era. Estimated print runs back then were in the 3-5 million range…and demand for cards has skyrocketed in the past few years.
However, with 1 million+ of a single card, and so many people in this game to make a profit, you know tons are going to send them in to get graded.
While I don’t think it’s necessarily a bad thing to have so many base cards printed, it does make it a bit harder to have an actual ROI on those cards.
Legacies for Ultra-Modern Sports Cards Aren’t Cemented
For this, I’m talking about collecting rookies. Clearly, if you pulled a Mike Trout auto 1/1, that’s going to be worth big bucks because he’s already got an insane resume as one of the best to ever do it.
But if we’re talking rookies from 2018-2022, we really have no clue who’s going to be an all-timer. Sure, we can guess (Tatis Jr., Guerrero Jr., Acuna Jr., Soto, Ohtani), we just don’t know which of them is going to sustain their production for another 8-12 years to cement themselves.
If you want to buy in on any of those players, it’s going to cost you good money, and then it’s possible for any of them to have their career derailed.
Grading Sports Cards Isn’t a Sure ROI Play
Back when card collecting EXPLODED (late 2020 – early 2021), you could grade almost anything and turn a profit!
But now, grading companies have raised prices, and the demand for cheap graded Jordan inserts has dropped.
I’ve got some cards in my collection that I got graded during that time…and now I’d be lucky to sell them for half the cost of just getting them graded!
Turning a profit with ultra-modern baseball requires more discretion, more knowledge, and more discipline. Of course it can be done, but it’s not as easy as “GRADE EVERYTHING WORTH $5 IMMEDIATELY!”
How to Profit on Ultra-Modern Baseball Cards
Check Pop Counts
Before you buy a graded rookie from the past few years, I’d check PSA’s Population Report so you can get an idea how many there are of a certain card!
For example, let’s take a look at Juan Soto’s Topps Update PSA 10 rookie
Now let’s check out the 9:
So here’s the problem in a nutshell:
This is a really common card, so even though Juan Soto has the potential to be great, the value isn’t there. Even graded a 9, you’ve lost money.
So let’s take a look at his pop count:
Wow! There’s over 20,000 of his PSA 10 of this card! That’s an astronomical number. Unless he turns into one of the best players of all time, It’s likely we’ll see this card continue to drop in value because there are so many.
Now one caveat about the pop report. You obviously can’t trust it for brand new cards because there won’t be many graded!
But if you’re looking at cards that are 1+ years old, take a look at the pop count first. Investing in a more rare Juan Soto card will certainly set your wallet back a little more, but it’s a much better investment.
For example, take a look at his Topps Chrome Update rookie card:
(This is the view from inside CardLadder, which pulls in sales data from eBay and pop counts from PSA)
Not only is this card similar in price to the one before, it’s got about ⅙ the pop count!
In the long run, I’d take this one.
Be the First to Market
This is another interesting play that’s become super popular in recent years.
If there’s a highly sought after rookie, that player’s cards are going to have sky-high pricing!
DO NOT BUY during that time…prices always come down (ask me how my NBA Hoops Haliburton and Wiseman are doing after I spent $25 apiece on raw ones 🤦♂️)
We saw this phenomenon with Donruss Mac Jones rookies.
I sold two base rookies for $66 right after I pulled them! At the time, he was a completely unproven rookie, the cards were ungraded, and with a crazy print run…I think it’s insane someone paid that.
Now here’s where the card is at:
Already down to nearly worthless.
But here’s the big money. The first GRADED ones went for HUGE money:
Here’s what the most recent one sold for:
For players like that, sell them fast…even if you want to keep them, sell them immediately, wait a few months, and buy it back.
The guy who sold that first Mac Jones could now buy 160 of that same card today and still have money left over. It’s crazy.
Buy & Hold Sealed Wax
Buy & hold (in my opinion) continues to be the safest bet to consistent profit in sports cards. The only thing that might compare would be buying the all-time great rookie cards of retired players…and not the overprinted ones from the junk wax era—focus on guys like Jordan, Mantle, Jim Brown, etc.
(Again, wax refers to anything that’s still sealed in a pack, box, or case)
Just take a look at this:
Brand new, those boxes probably sold for…$150 or so?
But even if they don’t go up THIS much…they pretty much always go up in value!
I put together an entire deep dive about investing in sealed wax, including historical research about different brands and price increases. Check that out here:
=> What Are the Best Card Packs to Flip?
Prospecting Game on Cheaper Prospects
Last (and probably least) is that you can make some long-shot investments and hope they work out.
Investing in no-name prospects (from Bowman) is a lot like penny stocks….
You’re out almost nothing, but you can take a shot that you’ll get lucky. Of course, 99% of the time you’ll just have a bunch of cards to add to your commons box later, but some people really have fun doing this!
The biggest key here is to offload the cards as soon as there is a spike. Usually, this is when they are called up to the big leagues. After that happens, there’s almost always a drop, and it’s hard for them to get back up to that price again!
