Better ROI: Should I Buy Raw or Graded Cards?

I only did PSA because I’m not going to do a full comparison of grading companies here, and they are the gold standard for resale.

So what’s the big takeaway of that data?

PSA 10s increase in value more over time than a PSA 9. PSA 9s increase in value more over time than raw. That holds true in both percentage value as well as dollar value.

The exception is the Russell Wilson raw rookie, but that’s because the original price was so cheap. If that $5 card was a $8 card, it would fall right in line with the trend. Even so, the PSA 10 experienced a greater percentage increase than the raw.

Why Do Graded Cards Hold Their Value Better?

There are three main reasons as to why graded cards hold value better over time:

1. You Know the Condition of the Graded Card

Once inside the slab with the grade on it, that card isn’t going anywhere. There’s a lot of value in knowing the condition of your card before you even have it in your hand…and that it’s always going to be that condition.

Of course there are stories of a PSA 9 being way off-center and that the grader probably had a bad day…but that’s not usually the case. It might knock the value a little bit, but mostly people will say that a 9 is a 9 and it’s always a 9 once it’s in that case.

2. You Know a Graded Card Won’t Be a Fake

Amongst the more iconic cards, fakes are becoming rampant. It’s to the point where an ’86 Fleer Jordan needs to be graded or people are just going to assume it’s fake. There’s so much value in a graded one that every version of that card should be graded.

The older the card is (and more valuable), the more important it is to know your card is real. PSA will also just give you an “authentic” grade with no number. This is useful if you had a card hand-signed by someone, or if you’re pretty sure the card will grade poorly and hurt the value, but want to show that it’s real. However, most consumers are smart enough to know that if you paid for “authentic” but not to have it graded that there’s going to be something wrong with it.

3. Slabs Look and Feel Cool – Especially for Personal Collections

The last reason that graded cards hold value is that they’re just awesome! They’re thick and heavy, and they come with that “thud” factor. There’s something about holding one and holding the weight in your hand.

Holding a .1 ounce piece of cardboard just doesn’t feel like that. Then the fact that you get the cool label on top to clearly see what the card is just adds to it.

Of course, deciding which company’s label you like best is another question altogether. I know tons of people that get every PC (personal collection) card graded, even though they don’t care about resale value. They want something that looks nice and protects the card. In that case, they’ll go with whichever company’s slabs they like the best.

When Would I Want Raw Cards Instead of Graded?

Despite all those reasons why you’d want something graded, buying raw makes sense for a lot of people.

A collector will choose to buy raw sports cards if they can’t afford the graded version, don’t care how the card will grade out, or if they want to try to get it graded themselves!

Buy Raw if You Can’t Afford the Graded Version

This past season Aaron Gordon got traded to the Denver Nuggets. I figured that he’d always been seen as someone with a lot of potential but on a losing team. I saw it as a good fit, so I wanted to buy one of his rookie cards to flip.

However, I’d just spent a bunch on other cards, and I like being married, so I bought a $4 ungraded rookie card. The day I got it, I listed it for $13 and it sold right away.

Great ROI…but less than $10. Wish I’d done the same with a graded version, but that’s the way it goes.

Collectors Will Buy/Keep a Card Raw if the Grade Doesn’t Matter

There’s a strong argument that cards that are super short printed don’t need to be graded. The idea is that grading a card sets it above the other ones, right? So, should this card have been graded?

You see that beautiful “One of One” cursive on the left? Getting this card graded (in many collector’s eyes) has no point because there are no other ones for this to beat out. It’s the only one.

You can throw that sucker in a magnetic one-touch and it’s probably just as well protected as a slab. Plus, you can actually take it out and put it in a new one if the protector gets scratched.

In my mind, I would grade this card because slabs look cool, but I wouldn’t expect it to significantly raise the value.

Collectors Buy Raw to Get it Graded Themselves

This is a big topic….

And LOTS of collectors use this as their primary way to make money. But you’ve got to know what you’re doing, or else you’re going to get both frustrated and broke.

Contrary to what some people say, you CAN find gem cards on eBay that aren’t graded (just using eBay as the example as it’s the #1 place to buy and sell BY FAR, although you can read my post about other places to sell cards here!)

I hear this “they’re selling it raw for a reason” comment all the time in the groups I’m in.

I disagree…partially.

Of course there are some sellers that only sell the cards that won’t gem and send the rest to get graded. I’m not going to pretend that isn’t common. However, there are many reasons someone would sell a gem card without grading it:

• They’re not very experienced/don’t know how.
  
• They don’t think grading it will add enough value, even if it’s gem.
  
• It’s too much hassle to grade.
  
• They want to sell it right away – Think back to my Aaron Gordon example. Even if that card could have gemmed, I wouldn’t have graded it. I wanted to capitalize on the hype right that minute. Someone else who believed more in his long-term potential would have sent it in and sat on it until the timing was right.

So, now that it’s clear there are plenty of reasons someone would sell a gem card in raw form, how do you go about finding cards like?

Inspect Cards in Person…If You Can

If you can look over a card at your LCS (local card shop) or a card show, that’s the way to go! While you may not want to pull out your loupe and centering card to make sure it’s perfect, it still beats trying to do it off pictures on eBay.

Only Buy Cards With Great Pictures

If you’re spending more than a few dollars on a card that you might want to get graded, then only do it if they have high-res pictures! It’s even better if they have zoomed in pictures on every corner.

Stay away from the listings where they’re just holding up the card in front of their computer, or the backdrop is the same color as the card. You want the contrast to see imperfections more clearly.

Read Descriptions to See if they List Imperfections

I’ve seen a card that I want to buy…

The images look good, the headline looks good, the price looks good…

But then last minute I read the description. “Chip along left edge.” Shoot.

If it’s a PC card, I’m still going to buy it. If I want to grade it, hard pass.

It’s easy to skip the description because so often it’s just the headline with shipping info populated in there by eBay, but good sellers will list imperfections there as well. Many sellers are realizing that they save money and time long-term if they spell out what’s wrong with the card up front.

Make Sure Most of Their Other Listings Aren’t Graded Cards

I recently discovered this and I love it!

If most cards that a seller has listed are graded, then your raw card is most likely to be a reject! If most other cards listed are raw, then you can be more confident that they’re just not someone who typically deals with graded cards.

Ignore Their Number of Feedback (Unless It’s Like Zero)

If the seller’s username is “John’s_Sports_Cards with 20,000 reviews…I’m guessing they would be savvy enough and comfortable enough to grade a card that should be graded.

On the other hand, if they only have like 60 reviews, perhaps you don’t trust them enough to handle your transaction—I know people that only buy if someone has hundreds of reviews.

So you could stick to that sweet spot of 100-1,000 reviews or so…but honestly, my advice is to follow the previous steps and basically ignore their feedback.

Would I Buy Raw Cards to Get Graded?

Personally, I haven’t really gotten into this. I buy a raw card if it’s a card I like. I recently bought this card:

I know, I know…terrible picture. This breaks like every rule. No close-ups, off-kilter, etc.

However, Anthony Davis is a PC player for me, I think this card looks awesome, and I’m an absolute SUCKER for short-printed cards (this one is numbered out of 10).

But when I got the card, I realized it’s actually in spectacular condition and I sent it off to SGC and came back a 9.5!

When I buy a card raw, I will inspect it over, and most of the ones I’ve purchased look like they would be a 9 or so. So I normally don’t sub cards that I’ve purchased raw, but mostly because it hasn’t been a big focus of mine.