Today I’ll show you a few of the cards I’ve personally invested in recently….
But more than that, I’ll show you how I decide which cards to invest in! It’s different for everyone, but I’ll show you how to pick based on your specific goals, budget, and time frame.
The easy answer to the best sports cards to invest in is whoever is currently experiencing a dip in pricing that you expect to increase in value in the future!
Of course there’s a lot to unpack in that one sentence—I could have said the same thing for any investment, really. How long until the card’s price increases? Why did it dip in the first place? Is there still room for this card to grow?
Let’s talk about different goals with your sports card investment, as well as how I identify the right cards to go after.
Your Sports Cards Investing Goals
I’m going to assume your goal is to flip cards for profit and not necessarily collect sets or cards from a purely hobby perspective.
That means your other main question should be “How long are you planning to hold this card before flipping it?”
Short Term Holds
Time Frame – 2 weeks to 2 months
Your goal here is to see an immediate spike and move on from the card. You’re probably not going to see a 2x in value, but 30% or so would be fantastic.
In my opinion, these are less likely to be superstar-type players as their values are usually already high and are less likely to be as volatile.
And even if they do spike 30%, you’re probably more likely to just hold if it’s a player like LeBron or Mahomes.
These are often low-end, young players who you think will come out on fire. You’re watching the news like a hawk, or waiting for a couple breakout games.
Could be someone like Franz Wagner—a young player that a lot of people like, but is he a franchise superstar, or a nice complementary player? If he has a nice stretch, his cards will bump for sure.
Examples:
- A baseball player who will get called up to the majors soon
- A quarterback you think will win a starting job soon
- A wide receiver whose first 3 games are against terrible defenses
- A good player before a possible playoff run
Risk Level: Medium to High (all relative – if done right, not a ton of risk)
These are often higher risk plays because their floor could be a card that’s almost completely nothing. For example, I have some Zion rookies right now. They’re definitely cheaper than two years ago, but they could still climb down in price if he gets injured quickly again.
However, a short-term hold could still be someone who’s a star player that you believe is in line for a bump. These are obviously lower-risk plays, but won’t come with the same ROI as a “penny stock” player.
Medium Term Hold
Time Frame – 3-6 months
These are players that you believe are going to break out in a meaningful way, or were undervalued because of an injury.
For me, these are the borderline stars, or the under-the-radar stars that most haven’t caught onto yet. You’re either holding them from the offseason until the regular season starts, or maybe throughout the entire season.
Think someone like Jordan Love. He’s already been promised the starting job (and saw a bump for that). But if he comes out and lights the world on fire, he’s going to see a crazy bump in price!
However, since he’s not going to be an MVP or Super Bowl contender, he’s someone I would offload as soon as he saw a bump.
Examples:
- A young player who will break out to all-star or MVP status (Jordan Love)
- A current star who was injured to end last season and has fallen off the radar (Anthony Richardson)
- A player on a very good team that could win the championship (Shai-Gilgeous Alexander)
Risk Level: Medium
You’ll notice that the longer you hold, typically the lower risk there is. This is true because the way I collect, is that usually I hold better players for longer. The better the player the lower the risk.
The flip side of that is summed up like this:
How many people are currently collecting Peja Stojackovic in the NBA?
Very, very few. His cards carry little value…yet he was a pretty good player, an all-star even. We see players of lesser caliber bought and sold with much more volume and value than him.
So in my mind, I don’t want to be caught long-term with anyone that’s not an all-time great.
Long Term Hold
Time Frame – 6 months – 3 Years
These are typically the young studs that have already proven to be incredible. They’re already super-well established and are really only derailed by injury (Derrick Rose), cheating (Astros), or doing something awful (Wander Franco).
These are the players on track to be hall of farmers, with a decent shot at ending up an all-time great.
These could very well turn into forever holds if they become someone with a cemented legacy, but in my experience, players more often than not don’t quite live up to the hype and fall short. I’d hold for a while but sell when there’s a crazy spike.
Risk: Low
You’re usually not going to get a quick, crazy return on these, but likely a slow, solid increase. Rarely will these fall off to almost nothing.
Forever Hold
Time Frame – Lots and lots of years
To me, these are the players that are either retired or soon to be with an already cemented legacy. These are the top 10-20 all-time players in their sport (give or take) and will likely only grow in legend the older they get.
These are the cards that you’re hoping fund your retirement. You want these cards to see steady increases in value over the years, with a few nice bumps along the way as the card market grows or the player is in the news.
These are your Tom Brady, Michael Jordan, Mickey Mantle, and LeBron James cards. These are the grails—the ones that will continue to grow steadily like your 401(k)…but likely with an even better return!
Truthfully, I wouldn’t even quite have Mahomes on this list. If he retired tomorrow, he’d still be in the hall of fame, but more in line with a “what if?” career than on par with Brady.
Examples:
- The best players whose legacies can’t be derailed unless they do something catastrophic (see Simpson, O.J.)
Risk: Lowest risk
It costs the most to get in on these players, but you’ll also see the steadiest returns. While there are always dips in the market, hold these forever and see increased returns.
The key is to not flip out when there is a dip. I think of it like the housing market:
It will always go up in value. In 2008, we saw the crash. If you could afford to wait, you ended up just fine a few years later at higher values than ever.
We saw a dip/crash in February 2021 in sports cards…but now we just wait and watch things continue to go upwards. Market corrections are good occastionally.
Also read => The Ultimate Playbook to Make Money Selling Sports Cards
Which Sport Should You Invest In?
Stick to Sports You Know the Best for Collecting
First and foremost, flipping cards for profit involves an understanding of the player’s status in the league and the ability to predict the future of that player.
For that reason, stick to a sport that you follow religiously (unless you’re only interested in forever holds…those are pretty easy to get into even if you don’t follow the sport closely).
For example, collecting prospects in baseball is perhaps the most difficult because there’s less news about players in the minors and much less visibility. You really have no clue how they’ll do in the majors.
I collected some prospects, but I don’t even try to quick-flip them because it’s too time consuming to follow minor league news. I keep them in a big box and check once a year to see if anyone’s popped. It’s not ideal, which is why most of my quick flips are NBA or NFL. I just know more.
Collect Sports with the Most Profit Predictability
Another reason I don’t like collecting a lot of baseball—it’s a lot harder to predict who’s going to be good, both teams and players. You also see great players drop off all the time for no reason.
For example, Cody Bellinger won MVP at age 23. At age 24 he batted .239 and the next year batted .159. He’s back to playing well, but many collectors have gone cold on him. He needs a few more years of MVP-level playing to regain it.
This would be like if LeBron in 2008 started playing like Doug McDermott overnight. It just doesn’t happen to the greats in basketball without major injury.
Baseball and football also tend to have a lot more surprises about which teams will be good. Football right now has a couple of teams that we can predict will be great (like the Chiefs and eagles) but there are probably 10 teams that can win the whole thing.
Baseball has surprise winners all the time.
Basketball? There are usually like 4-6 teams who could legitimately win the championship.
Here’s my point:
If you want to flip cards based on a player’s playoff success it’s much easier to predict in basketball…and a near total crapshoot in football with single elimination and baseball with its parity.
Which Sports Are Best Positioned to Grow?
Sealed wax prices from most to least expensive are:
- Basketball
- Football
- Baseball
Baseball is the least watched, but it carries the most nostalgia and history. There’s a reason a lot of people call it “baseball card collecting” even when referring to all sports cards.
And the fact that it’s the cheapest gives it the easiest starting point, especially for kids.
However, I believe that basketball has the best future.
Yes, their wax prices are the highest. However, basketball is only growing in popularity.
Basketball is much more international than football is, and I think the trend of international growth continues.
Really, I think you’re good with any of these three sports, but I think basketball will continue to grow.
(We’re also seeing huge growth in soccer, NASCAR, and the UFC, but I’m not that interested in collecting those).
How to Pick the Best Sports Cards to Invest In
I’ve put together a list of the factors you need to consider when identifying if a player is one that you should collect.
1. Is There a Dip in Pricing?
Check CardLadder, 130point, or eBay. Has their pricing come down from all-time highs?
I put together an entire post on all the ways to determine pricing on your cards => How Do I Fin dOut How Much my Basketball Cards Are Worth? (also applicable to other sports)
2. Why is There a Dip in Pricing?
This is important and overlooked…
If the player missed the playoffs or is coming back from injury, that player will usually drop in value over the offseason. Hobbyists just forget about the player.
Targeting those players is one of my favorites..but what about dips for other reasons?
Did their team cheat? Did the player do something disgusting or illegal? Is the hobby moving away from that player in general (e.g. someone who’s been given multiple chances and still hasn’t met expectations)?
If you have a good reason to believe the dip is temporary, buy in. However, someone like Deshaun Watson may never recover, no matter how well he plays. There will always be lots of collectors who refuse to deal in his cards out of principle.
3. Is There Still Room to Grow in Pricing?
I don’t like unproven players that are already so high in pricing that there’s very little they can do to grow.
A great example of this is Victor Wembanyama. His hype is so crazy that anything of his sells for insane amounts. What would he have to do as a player to sustain this pricing? Probably win an MVP as a rookie.
You could buy nice cards of proven players for what collectors are paying for him. People are paying as if he’s guaranteed to be Finals MVP in the next two years. In my mind, that’s gambling, not investing.
It’s likely we’ll see dips as his market cools off and he hits some rough patches in his rookie year.
4. Have They Shown Enough Promise?
Perhaps obviously, but you want to look for players who’ve shown some inkling that they’ll be a star in the league.
5. Will They Get Enough Opportunity to Break Out?
If they’ve shown promise, will they actually get the run they need?
I don’t like investing in running backs with multiple others on the roster who’ll get playing time. Coaches don’t use workhorse RBs quite like they used to.
Or, are they a decent forward on a team with a bunch of forwards? Stay away—might only get 25 minutes a game and that won’t get hobby love.
Or, is there a top prospect the team’s about to call up that plays the same position as your player?
All recipes for a player to get less burn.
6. Is Their Team Poised for Postseason Success?
Nothing hikes up values like a proven winner. There’s a reason Mahomes is sky-high…he just keeps winning!
But be wary of collecting a star player who likely isn’t going anywhere come playoff time.
Think someone like Luka. He’s never sniffed the finals, and his current team isn’t going to get him there. He’s always been priced sky-high, but now you NEED him to win something big to increase in price. Is that a bet you want to take?
7. Is The Player Injury Prone?
Don’t invest in pitchers. Don’t invest in Zion. Don’t invest in Saquon Barkley. You’re welcome.
8. Can You Get the Card Cheaper if You Wait?
Let’s say that you have a player finishing up a great regular season, but they’re missing the playoffs. Or, they played one playoff series and didn’t light the world on fire.
That’s the type of player that a lot of collectors are going to forget about over the offseason.
Sometimes this sort of thing happens midseason too.
Think about the dog days of the NBA—in that mid-January part of the season. I like to keep an eye on stars in smaller markets (most people aren’t forgetting about LeBron or AD in Los Angeles) and see if their prices start to wane.
For example, Paolo Banchero won Rookie of the Year and is having an even better second year on a better team:
His prices saw the inevitable drop after a new release, but even from the beginning of the season through January he had a drop from $70 to $40…even with him being better.
That’s just what happens during the dog days.
9. Is the Schedule Favorable?
This is one of my favorite football tactics! Success is so dependent on a team’s schedule that any short-term flip requires you to take a look.
For example, let’s say you wanted to do a short-term flip with Justin Fields before the start of the 2023 season.
Chicago’s first 8 games were:
- Packers
- Buccaneers
- Chiefs
- Broncos
- Commanders
- Vikings
- Raiders
- Chargers
Hmmm…it’s not great there in the middle. Chiefs is a loss (even Fields plays well), and then the Broncos and Commanders will have top-10 defenses likely. So, your targets are likely after week 2, but if he doesn’t play well, then you’re likely waiting until after week 7 or 8 (depending on how the Chargers are playing).
I know things didn’t play out well for him at the start of the season, but that’s an example of the kind of logic you can use.
A GREAT example of was the Eagles from two years ago (the Super Bowl team). They had an incredibly easy schedule to start the year and they dominated. Hurts went sky-high because of it.
10. What is the Player’s Pedigree?
A #1 pick gets a lot more leeway in their first few years than a player drafted later.
Think about Trevor Lawrence’s first few seasons…he came out as not just a #1 pick, but supposedly an all-time great #1 pick.
His first season didn’t go well at all, and yet, collectors still gobbled him up.
Then he plays super well his second year, and his prices climb up—but there was less room to grow than for someone like Jalen Hurts with much less hype.
11. Will a Good Season Actually Increase Value?
This one is interesting. You’d think the answer would always be YES! Of course a good season increases value!
But that’s not always the case. It’s possible to see no bump in value or perhaps just a little.
I’m referring to veterans who’ve already established who they are.
One of my favorite examples of this is Matthew Stafford. Did winning the Super Bowl give him a massive bump?
Not really. He’s too old to ever be an all-time great. Now he’s coming off injury and is on a not-great team.
Another one:
Khris Middleton. He won a championship in 2021 as the second-best scorer on the team. His values did see a bump…but fairly insignificant.
Giannis skyrocketed, but people know that Khris Middleton won’t be an all-time great. There was probably room in there for a small ROI on a short-term flip, but nothing else.
12. What Market is the Player In?
This matters less and less than it did back in the day, but it still has some relevance.
In the NBA, when a player goes to the Lakers, they’re usually getting a bump.
Or vice-versa…when someone goes away from the Lakers (*cough* Kyle Kuzma *cough*), they’re just not going to be relevant.
It doesn’t really matter when we’re talking about a guy like Luka or Durant because they’re transcendent, but you can’t tell me that Karl-Anthony Towns in New York wouldn’t be worth more.
13. What Was Their All-Time High?
When considering a player to invest in, I like to see what the all-time high was on their card!
If it’s right now…stay away.
If you’re significantly under it, you’ve likely got some room to grow!
However, you have to take into account a few things:
- Was their all-time high in February 2021, when everything skyrocketed? I’d prefer to see bumps much more recently than that so I know they weren’t just subject to the entire industry bump.
- Was their all-time high right after something big happened in their career? For example, has this certain card always been $200, but when the player won a championship, it went up to $300? In other words, if you have to hope for something that big to happen, it’s a risky investment
Who I’m Investing in and Why
I’m writing this soon before the 2023-24 NBA season. Here’s who I’ve been looking at recently and why!
I’m hoping that even if you read this later that the logic I’m using helps you make decisions.
NBA Players I’m Investing In
- Austin Reaves – Yep, he’s already got the “Lakers” bump and he had a good playoff run, but there’s a legitimate chance he becomes a borderline all-star. People love him, and an undrafted player who plays that well will get a lot of hobby love.
- Cade Cunningham – The dude was the #1 pick and considered a lock to be a star. His stats have been very good on a bad team (his poor efficiency his rookie year is a bit misleading as his second half picked up a lot). Just out of the public’s eye due to injury.
- Shai-Gilgeous Alexander – Certainly not under the radar anymore as a first-team All-NBA player, but still don’t think many people consider him a superstar. Let him do it for another year, and I also think his team is going to be better than many think. If after 5 weeks his team is third in the west and he’s an MVP candidate, sell.
- Scoot Henderson – Many experts say that he would have been the easy #1 pick a lot of years. Young, dynamic players like him get lots of hobby love. It only helps lower his pricing that he’s in Wemby’s shadow right now.
NBA Players I’m Staying Away From
- Lamelo Ball – He’s just too expensive. I feel like the people investing big money into him are betting that he’s an all-time great. That’s just too high a bar for me. Plus, his team stinks.
- Joel Embiid – Yes he won the MVP, but the Harden drama could submarine their team. It’s more likely he’ll have an injury-prone season than win another MVP.
- Victor Wembanyama – His prices are going to be insane.
- Zion – Some people are loving the buy-low opportunity with him, but how many guys do well after being so injury prone? Embiid is one of the few examples,
Also read => The Ultimate Playbook to Make Money Selling Sports Cards
