The calendar’s turned to 2024 and it’s time to figure out which basketball cards we should be investing in this year….
I’m going to run through a few different categories:
- Short-term targets to flip in the next few months
- Medium or long-term holds of great players with down pricing
- Rookies from last year’s class to keep an eye on
- Types of cards (brands, rarity, etc) to invest in 2024
- Hobby boxes to hold onto long-term
Let’s go!
What Are the Best Basketball Cards to Invest in 2024?
Short-Term Targets
Right now we’re going to be asking questions like this:
- Which teams are going to surprise people in the near future?
- Who’s going to take a leap in the regular season or make noise in the playoffs?
I have a few targets:
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | 2018 Prizm PSA 10
We’re seeing an increase from about $75 up to about $90 or so. So why do I think there’s still room for growth?
- He hasn’t been on a legitimate playoff contender before
- Other contemporaries have much higher Prizm PSA 10 values (Tatum – $140, Luka $200…yes, SGA plays in their playground now)
Paolo Banchero | 2022 Prizm PSA 10
If we’re talking about just this season, I’m not sure we’re going to see a turnaround in pricing—although I think they’re primed to do well for a bit here. Just probably not a playoff contender yet.
But when next season starts, I could imagine the Magic as a top-4 team in the east with Banchero averaging 25+.
Medium or Long-Term Holds
Let’s talk about some players that have been around for a bit that have criminally underrated pricing!
LeBron James | 2003 Topps
I know the pop count on this card is high (around 7,000), but it’s LeBron James. I’m not sure why we saw his cards drop by 1/3 over the past year, but look to see these prices start to ramp up if the Lakers can improve things a little by the end of the season.
Or, worst case, wait until next season’s August bump in pricing and offload it.
Nikola Jokic | 2015-16 Prizm PSA 9
Here’s Giannis, the same card:
Why is Giannis still 50% more valuable than Jokic, even after a significant drop in the past year?
It seems to me like Jokic is the one that will keep winning MVPs and championships in the next 5 years.
Rookies From Last Year’s Class to Keep an Eye On
I already mentioned Paolo, but here are a few others that I would certainly be looking to grab sooner than later:
- Jalen Williams – Seems on a path to stardom on a great young team. He could be the second banana (or third, depending on Chet) on a team that wins championships.
- Jabari Smith Jr – The third pick had an underwhelming rookie year and has yet to put up big stats. BUT… he’s improved a bit across the board. I doubt he’ll ever be a true star, but it wouldn’t surprise me if we see a bump in his production in the next 12 months.
- Jaden Ivey – I know he’s playing in the wasteland of Detroit, but he’s starting to get some run and producing pretty well.
Types of Cards to Invest in 2024
Let’s do a quick rundown of what I’m seeing these days as far as good investments for newer players (since 2019 or so):
- Choose High Quality Brands – Hoops, Chronicles, and Donruss just aren’t holding a lot of value these days. I bought a Zion Donruss PSA 9 for $15. Stick with Prizm, Select, Mosaic, and Optic.
- Choose Rarer Cards – As mentioned above, base cards are crazy overproduced these days—and we’re seeing a corresponding drop in value. Of course, if you just want in on Lamelo and you can’t afford more, that’s obviously just fine. But for pure investment reasons, look for numbered cards, autos, silvers, or othered color variations. Stay away from inserts, unless they’re the rare, highly sought after ones like a Kaboom.
- Watch Out for Overhyped Rookies – I think Wemby could be a generational talent… the problem is he’s already priced like one. What would he have to do to justify his pricing? Even if he wins an MVP and a championship, I’m not sure he’ll be priced higher than his stuff is now.
Best Hobby Boxes to Hold Long-Term
If you’re looking to hold sealed wax, here are a few pointers:
- Go for Hobby – While retail stuff can certainly increase in value, usually the biggest jumps come from hobby boxes that have guaranteed hits (autos, memorabilia, certain inserts). People who will pay $5k for a hobby Prizm box a few years from now are gamblers and want the bigger hits.
- Go High Quality – Of course the lower stuff goes up as well, but if it’s a quality rookie class and you have Prizm, Mosaic, Optic, or Select, people will pay good money for a chance at those giant hits.
- HIDE THEM – I bought a case of Topps Chrome baseball…and I’ve already opened all of the boxes even though my goal was to keep the whole case 🤦♂️
I did a complete breakdown of different products and which sealed boxes increased their value the most over time…check it out:
